The Donald Trump/Bend urban legend

Note: This post was originally written way back in 2005, when most of the world still considered Trump to be (at best) an orange-skinned clown with questionable tastes and shady dealings. Of course now it’s 2022 as I update this and we all know he’s even more of a racist shitbag who absolutely destroyed our democracy, so there’s really nothing more to see here.


I just heard about this at work today, people claiming that Donald Trump said the number one place to invest in/develop/buy/smoke real estate is Bend, Oregon. One guy—a local land engineer even—claims that Trump said this on Larry King Live. He may even be developing something here!

Folks, it just ain’t true. Someone’s blowing smoke up your ass. It’s a rumor someone started to get people talking about Bend real estate. There’s no information online alluding to this, and even the transcripts of the Larry King Live episode in question don’t bear it out. Bend is not even on Trump’s radar.

Let’s move on now, m’kay?

Comments

63 responses to “The Donald Trump/Bend urban legend”

  1. shannon Avatar
    shannon

    i heard this about a month ago! i’m hoping it’s not true.

  2. rick Avatar
    rick

    who is saying what?

  3. Keenuh Avatar
    Keenuh

    A friend of mine in real estate said that her office has had numerous calls from out-of-state residents inquiring about property because of Donald Trump’s comment. I’ve heard about it from numerous people…. but not WHERE the Donald was when he was quoted.

  4. Garret Avatar

    The version of the rumor I heard was that it was on 60 minutes. So, I called the show and asked for a transcript and they didn’t know what I was talking about.

  5. Kim Avatar
    Kim

    7/29/2005
    Just heard about it today. From a co-worker who claimed to have heard it last night on larry King Live. Heres a new one I heard also. The Hiltons (yes those Hiltons) are building a 25,000 sq.ft. home @ Broken Top. !

  6. Bob Avatar
    Bob

    I live in Broken Top and find it hard to believe that the homeowners association would allow a 25,000 sq ft home. It would have to be in the Highlands. I know of pro football players building there, but no Hiltons.

  7. Michael Avatar
    Michael

    I heard yesterday the Ivanna Trump had lunch at the Pine Tavern and that another friend who works at a title company told me that Donald bought 2000 acres in Tumalo.

  8. rick Avatar
    rick

    I’ve heard the Hilton rumor and the location I was told was the Highlands. They have 10 acre parcels there, so 25000ft wouldn’t be a problem. The latest one I heard about the Donald was that this was said on the Jay Leno show.

  9. UtterlyBoring.com Avatar

    Lots of Local Clicks
    Just for kicks, I looked through some of the totally meaningless click totals on some of the posts from some of the local bloggers over on ORblogs, and I think…

  10. shannon Avatar
    shannon

    i think we should start rumors about how donald trump said bend is a horrible place to live and then maybe we can stop the influx of ppl buying houses right from underneath me.

    UGH.

  11. Jake Avatar

    HAHA…I agree with Shannon.

    "Today on Larry King Live: Donald Trump says Bend is a hell hole."

    And it’s very easy to look up property records in Deschutes County:

    http://www.deschutes.org/dial.cfm

    There are no hits for Donald Trump, or anything similar, in this county, at least.

    You can look up a few current and former pro football players and check out the size of their pads in Black Butte Ranch, for example.

  12. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    What about Mr.T ?I heard he was going to clear cut Drake Park and build a rv park there ?

  13. monkeyinabox Avatar

    I pitty the fool who messes with Drake Park!!!!

  14. Jake Avatar

    HAHAHAHAHAHA!!11!!111!!eleveneleven…

    (sorry, Monkey, couldn’t help it)

  15. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Elvis was spotted with a new house and pretty family in NW Crossing

  16. Donald Trump Avatar

    It is true that I will be purchasing land in Central Oregon, and the rummor about Mr. T is also true.

  17. Crystal Sellers Avatar

    Bend is a beautiful town to live in. If you are a property owner you should be grateful to live in this town and have Mr. Trump mention Bend Oregon. Property values are going up rapidly and with the Mr. Trump saying this it will go up even more. Just one thing needs to be said "equity" or "money, money, money".

  18. Jon Avatar

    The problem is Trump *didn’t mention* this town anywhere. It’s false. The rumor was probably started by someone with something to gain by generating this type of interest in Bend and by the increasing property values… imagine that.

    "If you are a property owner you should be grateful to live in this town…" Well, only if you’re in it for the money, which is what a lot of us natives have been complaining about–greedy developers looking to make bank at the expense of Bend and common sense.

    Not all of us live here because of the property values or the real estate market, you know.

  19. Red Rhino Avatar
    Red Rhino

    I returned from vacation last week and heard several verisions of the Trump rumor. My realtor even told me he has started to get calls from all over the country since the alleged airing of Trump’s comments. The property I was in the process of buying was raised $25,000 in a week. Totally ridiculous.

  20. Newbie Avatar
    Newbie

    Good one Jake, information is the key!

    We are new to Bend, but moved here for lifestyle. We are concerned about being able to find a home in this market. I can’t believe this rumor is going around and even made it into the Source this week.

    The sad truth is however that just "hype" can generate a negative efffect if people really want to take advantage of the situation, but I do find it hard to believe the property Red Rhino was buying was increased $25K in one week . . .if you were in the process of the buy didn’t you have a contract/offer in place . . .even if you were in negotiations and they made any counteroffer then they are legally bound to the previous offer unless it expired – check with your realtor if you really want the house, otherwise you really don’t want to deal with people like that anyway.

  21. shannon Avatar
    shannon

    OMG this is SO out of control. According to the Bend Chamber Newsletter, they called Larry King Live and were told that there was no transcript of this and that it is false.

    As someone trying to buy a house in Bend, we looked at new houses in May that were listed at 189K that jumped to $220K last month. It’s looking slim for the working class folk that will be scraping by to pay mortgages.

  22. dick jonsohn Avatar
    dick jonsohn

    Hilarious that such "prominent" people in town are INSISTING that they’ve seen the interview with their own eyes, yet this rumor still lingers as unsubstantiated.

    yeah, Bend is beautiful right now but it is whoring itself out to all extremes…

  23. Niko Avatar
    Niko

    As a new business owners here in Bend, I have been "courted" by all the Media for Commercials. Fox 39, Jerry Upham, printed out "details" of reasons to sign up with them and used the Don Trump as a prominent Tagline for their "services", having already heard the RUMOUR, we challenged him to produce proof of his use of quotes. Should be interesting, to see TV/Ad people squirm!!

  24. Amanda Thomas Avatar

    My dad is in the army and he says that they are going to put a nuclear missile silo next to Pronghorn. How will this effect land values?

  25. pissed bendite Avatar
    pissed bendite

    If trump builds…we burn. The acusations are false so no worries.

  26. cody Avatar
    cody

    Funny stuff, Bend real estate has peaked for the next 5 -7 years, just like any extended asset class, things get the silliest at the top. Keep chasing momo’s I will buy the pieces you drop in the next few years after you are done chasing pipe dreams.

  27. Wake up and smell the coffee! Avatar
    Wake up and smell the coffee!

    Cody –

    There will be big puddles filled with your tears when you see the home prices a few years from now. Bend is not a job based economy… it is a resort town with golf courses and becoming more so everyday. Bend will always be a nice place to live, and the rich will always have money; can you add these two together? (p.s. if you want to know your future in real estate – ask your self how well YOU have done in the past!)

  28. Mrs. Trump Avatar
    Mrs. Trump

    I get half of what Donald buys!!!

  29. Luke Sheridan Avatar
    Luke Sheridan

    Anytime someone like the hiltons or donald trump buy something it will be under a corporation, so you won’t be able to find them on DIAL.

  30. Just wondering Avatar
    Just wondering

    Why is it that the only people who actually saw Trump’s so-called comment on tv are in the real estate business?

  31. Amanda Thomas Avatar

    I heard that Trump was on Oprah when he made the central Oregon comment and that he bought property in Powell Butte out by the new resort.

  32. pamela anderson Avatar
    pamela anderson

    I heard tommy lee is going to go to cocc next fall and join the ski team.

  33. Gramma Avatar
    Gramma

    We nick -named Bend Oregon "BEND OVER" Oregon after buying a home here a few months ago so we could be close to our most precious grandson. Our daughter and son-in-law where convinced Bend is "the place" to raise a child based on faulty research. TRAFFIC CONGESTION makes us want to stay at home forever! It’s not like you get a Mariner’s stadium or any really great venues or places to go for all your inconvenience due to horrible traffic. Property taxes are STEEP! We are watching builder’s shlock together super expensive houses that yuppies are going into stupid debt for. The outdoors is nice but not really spectacular unless you are already coming from the desert. I suppose if sking is your life it is spectacular. But let’s face it-compared to the North Cascades of Washington State-blah. I get the feeling that Bend is desperately tring to be a status place where the desperate to be seen vain and shallow well- heeled will want to come. My husband said he has never seen such horribly fake looking women since his last project in Los Angeles. He says it makes him shudder.
    We are hoping property prices do not collapse after buying a very nice but "over priced" house here. Doanld Trump would not stop to take a wee wee here. Come on folks! The small town feel was polluted by thousands of southern Californians who know just how to ruin anyplace they move to!
    But, seeing our grandson makes it all worthwhile!

  34. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    LOL! It’s been called BEND OVER for as long as I can remember being here!

  35. 25 year Bender Avatar
    25 year Bender

    Yep, been on a 25 year Bend(er) – never had a hangover this bad! This town is completely unrecognizable now. The greed and irresponsibility running and infusing this town is one of the saddest things I’ve ever witnessed. I would commiserate with friends about the "de-evolution" of our town, but most have moved on to, well, places with jobs. Professional jobs with professional wages. So Bend is a service oriented tourist/resort town now with an entrenched camp of realtors/developers/builders. I’m just another rat looking for a porthole…

    If I win the lottery today I’ll change my tune quick and chastise all you whiners for speaking ill of MY great town!!!

  36. Dank Spoonfed Avatar
    Dank Spoonfed

    I grew up in Bend and left for college in 1993, and never really came back except to visit. Some of my friends who settled there permanently are doing pretty well – if people think there are few professional jobs there NOW, they should have seen it 5-10 years ago, when there were none.

    Unfortunately Bend is in a tight spot in terms of its ongoing economic viability, and always has been because of a lack of much to offer other than "lifestyle." When I was a kid in the ’80s, Bend was going through tough economic times. People (including my family) heated their homes with wood they chopped in the woods themselves or purchased for $35 a cord. All those houses on the "hot" Westside, even the riverfront ones, were run down and the inhabitants were poor. The city couldn’t afford to dredge Mirror Pond, so it smelled and was choked with weeds. The streets were cracked – the city couldn’t afford to repave them, so did a cheap fix called a "chip-seal" (grinding up the surface of the road and mixing in liquid tar) which essentially turned many of the streets back into dusty dirt roads.

    Bend set its hopes on tourism – Bachelor built new high-speed chairlifts, opened the Summit and there were hopes that Bend would become a destination ski resort attracting people from all over the world. Ads were placed in publications around the country, but the plan didn’t work out. Much debt was incurred, and eventually Bachelor was sold off to Powdercorp. As an adult, when I finally saw Vail, Breckenridge, Sun Valley, Mammoth Mountain, and other real destination ski resorts, I knew that Bachelor would always be a regional mountain – it had no chance to compete with the slopeside condos, steeper hills, closer airports and better weather of the established destination ski resorts.

    Then Bend found a new industry: promoting the local "lifestyle" – if people who already had made money somewhere else could be persuaded to come to Bend and bring their bank accounts with them, maybe they would spread some around. That plan was successful. Now, most of the town’s economy is based on bringing new people in to live. Almost everything else, from building/selling/remodeling houses, to financial services, to whatever else it is people in Bend do, will dry up when the inflow of people slows or stops. And that won’t take a bursting of Bend’s own housing bubble – Bend’s economy is now connected directly to California’s. For years, people in California (mostly Bay Area and SoCal) have cashed in the equity in their homes and moved to Bend, Ashland and other Oregon towns for "quality-of-life." Since the early ’90s there has been a steady stream of people able to do just that. If a large number of Californians find themselves "upside-down" (owing more on their mortgages than their houses are worth), they can’t cash in any more. And the town’s population growth is the base of the economic pyramid in Bend.

    Bendites: how many of your friends are realtors or contractors?

  37. life long oregonian Avatar
    life long oregonian

    Bend is beautiful, but its heart breaking to see this picture. Everywhere you go all I here is someone talking about realstate, what land is worth ect. Nobody cares how the person next door is doing, no one cares about how pretty it is outside today, nobody cares that the person they love has cancer, nobody cares if someone doesnt have a place to live cause their mobile home park sold. Its very sad here, what kind of quality of life is that! I long for the day I retire and move back to the small community I came from where everyone still cares and you live in your house till it is paid for and you live out the rest of your years with friends and family that cares. People are rude here not to mention pigs look at the garbage surrounding the river and the forests and China hat. I feel for the people who were born and raised here and have to see this happen to the home town and their quality of life. Call this pretty people town, and look how ugly they really are.

  38. Dank Spoonfed Avatar
    Dank Spoonfed

    Life long oregonian, I think that people talk about real estate because they are nervous and they want to get a feeling of how the winds are blowing. It’s a market – an aggregation of people’s estimates of what property is worth. If people are talking about prices going down, that will lead people to think that property is worth less. And if people think property is less valuable than it was yesterday, it IS less valuable than it was yesterday. That’s what the Trump thing was all about – keeping potential purchaser’s enthusiasm alive about real estate in Bend.

    A lot of people who favor investments in real estate argue something like this: "nobody NEEDS Coca-Cola stock. People NEED a place to live. Real estate has inherent value." They are right in the sense that it will always be worth something. Real estate will never be free. But the argument is flawed in the sense that because people have to afford the houses they live in. That limits how high the market can go. No one will ever talk about being able to AFFORD Coca-Cola stock or another asset that has no "inherent value." It’s either a good investment or it isn’t. And if you invest in the stock of the right company, there’s no limit to how high it can go if the company continues to grow, and it never becomes more or less "affordable." But an investment in a unit of real estate will always be limited by its affordability to the person who will live in it or use it – its inherent value can’t rise any further than that, and will drop if no owner or renter can be found who is willing or able to pay for it. And if the value of the property drops below the amount borrowed to pay for it, it takes a hardy soul to wait the market out. In a town like Bend where real estate IS the economy, how many will be able to meet their mortgage payments while waiting out a slump? During a slump, transaction volume and prices fall (affecting realtors), vacancy rates and foreclosures rise (affecting builders, bankers and developers), investable assets disappear (affecting financial advisers) and people don’t invest in renovations of a property decreasing in value – and property owners don’t have equity to borrow against for renovations (affecting remodeling contractors). How much of Bend’s economy falls in those categories? Unless incomes rise at least as fast as housing costs, real estate will ALWAYS eventually peak. In places with an export-oriented manufacturing economy, a recession is tempered by a cheaper dollar and increased exports, which creates additional jobs. In places with a service economy where revenues are based largely on transaction volume, recessions are harder to weather because fewer deals are done. To the extent Bend has attracted enough qualified professionals to sustain such industries as computer programming, it has a chance to do OK in a housing slump. Retirees whose wealth isn’t all tied up in real estate investments will also be fine and will enjoy the lower cost of living in a recession-era Bend.

    People know this and they want to know when the peak in the housing market will be so if things get bad, they at least have cashed out their equity. They know how stretched they are (or aren’t) to afford the place they live now, and they wonder whether everyone else feels the same way, because "everyone else" is the potential market in case they want to sell. No one wants to sell and then see the property they sold increase in value after the sale, and no one wants to buy and see the value drop. Knowing when the right moment to buy or sell has come requires a lot of conversation.

    One thing is for sure: they won’t tear down the housing developments that have been built. SOMEONE will live there. The question is: will those people be real estate agents and contractors as half the population of Bend now seems to be? Or will it be retirees who made smart investment choices during the housing boom and want to live in an affordable area?

    If I were to open a business in Bend now, it wouldn’t be an antique shop or an art gallery. It would be a company specializing in in-home elder care and/or sale and delivery of medications and medical supplies.

  39. Dank Spoonfed Avatar
    Dank Spoonfed

    Surprisingly, small-town Oregon has some of the most overvalued real estate in the country.

    "WHERE IT WILL HIT HARDEST:
    Most of the most overvalued markets, according to DeKaser, are in California and Florida. Number one is Santa Barbara, where home prices, at a median of $564,100, are 69 percent higher than they should be.

    Close behind is another Golden State city, Salinas, where home prices, at $515,231, are overvalued by 67 percent. Naples, Fla., came in third at $276,827, 62 percent higher.

    THE ONLY TOWN TO CRACK THE TOP 15 FROM OUTSIDE FLORIDA OR CALIFORNIA WAS MEDFORD, ORE. The median home price there was $228,201, overvalued by 55 percent.

    Of cities with populations of more than one million, San Diego was judged the most overvalued. Homes there average $443,445, according to the report, and are 53 percent higher than they should be. Los Angeles was 48 percent higher, with a median price of $405,668."

    http://money.cnn.com/2005/08/18/real_estate/buying_selling/overvalued_housing_markets/index.htm

    How much different is the real estate market in Bend compared to Medford?

  40. life long oregonian Avatar
    life long oregonian

    How do realtors sell these houses before they are even built? Surely it cannot be young local people here buying these on the wages they pay here. With bankrupseys becomeing harder to file for in the future I would think americans better think twice before going into such a dept as this. Its just too bad that the people buying here are a different breed. Not all but a big majority of them are rude and snobs ect. Why do they move from southern Ca. to here, and then creat what they moved here to get away from. Dont make sence.

  41. Jon Avatar

    life long oregonian: Realtors are selling the lots that have pre-determined home plans attached to them, so the buyer in theory knows exactly what they’re getting. They usually get to pick out some custom stuff too, like colors and flooring. They just have to wait a bit longer before they can close on the house.

    In theory, of course. All sorts of things can go wrong, and often do.

  42. Collin Avatar

    I just got back from my families 4th vacation to Bend, and we are now planning on moving to Bend. I am happy to hear that Trump is not buying land there…

    I am really sad to hear ‘life long oregonians’, ’25 year bender’, and ‘Grandma’ say the things they do. Pointing the finger at Southern Californians just wrong. I live in Long Beach, and I want to get away from city without sacrificing an public lifestyle for my children. The same reason my Mother-in-law moved there almost 20 years ago.

    Bend is different, and it is changing. I can see that over the last 4 years. And change brings both good and bad things. But to the people who complain. What have you done lately to make Bend a better place! … besides complain. I plan on bringing my family and my business. I will clean up my trash, and say hello to my neighbor! I don’t like being considered a part of the problem by people who give no solution.

  43. JD Avatar
    JD

    I just receive an offer to work in Bend as an engineering professional. The Trump rumor was brought up to my wife and I as well. We’ve enjoyed time we’ve spent in Bend with friends the past several years and hope to make this our primary home where we can afford to live comfortably on a "family" (single) income. We hope the next few weeks we come to a town that is a strong community, values family, and where there is still some real estate available that is not overvalued based on hype. Call me old fashioned, but there is a lot of us mid 20 to mid 30 year olds that are yearning for the days when you could afford a house payment on a single income.

  44. lifelongoregonian Avatar
    lifelongoregonian

    collin, you feeling guilty, I dont think anyone here pointed a finger at you did they? You can live where ever you chose thats the great thing about the usa. Good luck on your move and your business, but how you treat others is up to you.

  45. Dank Spoonfed Avatar
    Dank Spoonfed

    To Collin: yes, I already sense in your tone the kind of feeling of entitlement that Bendites find annoying about Southern Californians. As if by moving to Bend with your business and your kids is somehow going to "improve" the town. Bendites would answer – that’s exactly the point – we don’t need improving!

    From the Southern Californian point of view, Bend has been "improved" by the tract home developments, strip malls and yuppie amenities like wine shops, coffee houses, and art galleries that are the "businesses" Southern Californians have brought with them.

    And your family – I’m sure they’re great, but when I was in junior high and high school in Bend it was those new Southern Californian transfer students who brought the drugs, sex and materialism of their homeland with them and popularized them with the locals.

    There are few places more superficial and decadent than the O.C., where Long Beach is. From the Bend point of view, you’re bringing the O.C. to the C.O., and it dilutes the Central Oregonian way of life.

    Also, to all the newcomers – watch where your kids go to high school. I’ve been hearing from my Bend friends lately that Mountain View has turned into the "poor kids’" school, violent, with widening racial divides between white and Hispanic kids and the quality of education going down quickly, and that the "rich" Summit kids have bacchanalian parties in gated communities with cocaine in the bedroom and fancy cars in the driveway. I haven’t heard what the Bend High kids are up to.

  46. Dank Spoonfed Avatar
    Dank Spoonfed

    OREGON COUNTY 60 MILES FROM BEND MAKES IT INTO TOP 20 POOREST COUNTIES IN UNITED STATES WITH A POPULATION OVER 250K

    Poorest counties with a population of 250,000 or more

    Rank City Median household income, 2004
    1 Hidalgo County, TX $24,778.00
    2 Cameron County, TX $26,290.00
    3 Bronx County, NY $28,705.00
    4 El Paso County, TX $28,925.00
    5 St. Louis city, MO $30,389.00
    6 Philadelphia County, PA $30,631.00
    7 Caddo Parish, LA $31,317.00
    8 Orleans Parish, LA $31,369.00
    9 Baltimore city, MD $34,055.00
    10 Mahoning County, OH $34,132.00
    11 Polk County, FL $34,206.00
    12 Luzerne County, PA $34,341.00
    13 Oklahoma County, OK $35,182.00
    14 Mobile County, AL $35,512.00
    15 Lake County, FL $35,856.00
    16 E. Baton Rouge Parish, LA $35,954.00
    17 Pasco County, FL $35,997.00
    18 Kings County, NY $36,030.00
    19 Nueces County, TX $36,050.00
    20 Marion County, OR $36,591.00

    from http://money.cnn.com/2005/08/30/pf/city_county_rankings/index.htm

    About Marion County:

    Quick Facts

    Capital: Salem
    Area: 1,193 square miles
    Established: July 5, 1843
    Population: 298,450 (est. July 1, 2004)
    Cities: 20 incorporated
    Elevation: 154 feet
    Average Temp: Jan. 39.3 F; July 66.3 F
    Annual Precipitation: 40.35 inches
    Principal Industries: Government, food processing, lumber, manufacturing, education, tourism, and agriculture.

    from http://commissioners.co.marion.or.us/about.asp

    One of of the major problems of this county near Bend is that it is a major center for production and distribution of methamphetamines. In just the first few months of 2004, the DEA seized 7.44 kilos of pure meth in this destitute county just a short drive by car from Bend. The DA reported that 90% of the juvenile court cases were meth-related.

    from http://commissioners.co.marion.or.us/mcpscc/MCPSCC%20Strategic%20Plan.pdf

  47. lifelongoregonian Avatar
    lifelongoregonian

    Not to change the subject, but RF Reid from Arizona that wrote the sales tax comment can stay in Arizona and pay all he wants in taxes, not everyone is rich as he is. If he can afford an RV that costs over 5000.00 to licence alone, and gas is no problem for him, let him mind his own business and take your ideas to Arizona and leave us to h-ll alone. I bet he didnt donate to Katrina. Those kind are always thinking of ways to rob from the poor and give to the rich.

  48. lifelongoregonian Avatar
    lifelongoregonian

    By the way this was in todays paper. /9/19.

  49. me in Bend Avatar
    me in Bend

    Well, back to original comment of Trump – Bend is the place to invest – that is true. A recent report said Bend is the 6th fastest growing Metro areas in the nation. And the appreciation rate of houses was at 23% last year – so there ya go! I live here and can say that I bought a house 3 months ago and have already amassed 30,000 in equity.

  50. lifelongoregonian Avatar
    lifelongoregonian

    yea i guess it is a great place to invest, and I hope everyone invest all they can here,cause like I said all I ever here is more money ,more money ,more money, build it up let it spead enjoy the rat race, just stay here and leave the rest of the state to the people who just want a nice place to raise their children and provide a nice affortable home for them, and those who want to retire and relax and not have to worry about getting hit on the highway by some crazy person who is in a hurry to get to the next realstate meeting.

  51. Dank Spoonfed Avatar
    Dank Spoonfed

    To "me in Bend": no one is denying that Bend is fast-growing. And it’s clear that Bend’s huge leaps in real estate values are largely due to that growth. The point is this: is Bend’s economy a "boomtown" economy that depends on a constant influx of newcomers to keep afloat its real estate agents, real estate developers, contractors, home-improvement stores, landscapers and other related businesses, or will it be able to sustain itself at the same level if and when the inflow of people slows or stops?

    A boomtown is dependent on the mobility of people who will bring money in. Unless the town has an economy that has a net inflow of revenue from sales of products or services, if for some reason people can’t or won’t move into the town with spendable assets, the economy will suffer. It’s true what people say about real estate being a good long-term investment — if property values stay flat or drop, you can live in your house until they rise again, which they will inevitably do. That is, of course, as long as you have an income and can make your mortgage payment. Bend’s boomtown economy means that if people in California or elsewhere can’t afford to move, the large number of Bendites engaged in building and selling houses to each other will have to find something else to do.

    I think that the situation is not necessarily so precarious if Bend can succeed in attracting some major employers (like a four-year college) to lessen its dependence on a constant influx of newcomers. High-tech industries like programming and non-location-specific fields like consulting would be a good fit, because Bend’s remote location and poor transportation connections limit Bend’s ability to export goods. In severe weather (not a rare occurrence), Bend sometimes becomes cut off from major population centers and in today’s world of "just-in-time" delivery, that is not a good thing.

    A limiting factor here, however, is Bend’s inability to retain its best and brightest young people, its low wages, and competition from areas that are closer to world-class educational and research facilities and financial markets. A consulting company in Bend will find it increasingly difficult to compete with others who have easier access to a major airport, networking opportunities with players in large markets, and an easier time attracting talent from top universities. On the last point, attracting talent, Bend is better positioned than towns of similar size and similar remoteness because it can make up for its lower wages with the promise of greater recreational opportunities. However, when you pay a lower wage and sell the recreation angle, it’s difficult to get your employees to work the 80-hour weeks that those in competing markets are glad to work. This reduces the competitiveness of Bend companies and serves as an explanation of why you don’t see many high-powered manufacturers, consulting firms or software companies based in mountain resort towns located three hours away from a town of even 100,000 people.

    In the ’80s, Bend promoters tried a different angle – turning Bend into a destination resort playground for the rich along the lines of Vail, Aspen or Sun Valley. This is unattractive for a few reasons. First, Bend is still a place where a family making less than 6 figures can live in a nice house, own an SUV and still afford a ski pass. The affordability of Bend relative to other resort areas is part of the town’s appeal. If an Aspen/Vail/Sun Valley model of development is successful, many of Bend’s townspeople would end up priced out, living in Prineville. However, that model is not feasible for Bend – have you been to Aspen or Vail? They have daily flights from major money/population centers and their mountains are steep and well-developed, with slopeside condos and ski-in commercial zones at the bottom of the slopes. Mt. Bachelor, unlike other resorts, is built on government land. Not even night skiing is allowed. Barring a major change in Forest Service policy, Bachelor will always be a half-hour drive each way from lodging and services.

  52. tina Avatar
    tina

    I used to live in Mammoth in the 1970’s. At that time you could buy a condo for $15,000. Then they had a drought and everyone left town. There was even a sign as you left town towards 395 that said "will the last one leaving please turn out the lights". It was very sad to all of us who just wanted to live in a nice place and ski have to leave.

    Within the next few years all of the people who had made their money from Los Angeles came up and bought everything they could find to buy and the property values shot up. Those same condos were now going to $50,000.

    For all of us that were weathering out the storm for the next skiable season we were shoved by the wayside and Mammoth became a spandex, bleach blond, guys with gold chains nightmare.

    Keep in mind, these were all the baby boomers the swore that they were never going to be plastic, love everyone and peace.

    They became what they hated and a nice little town like Mammoth became a high priced boutique shop, heavily advertised to get your money L.A. town.

    There used to be logs lining the roads, they removed them, too corny. There used to be great places to go a with your friends at night and dance, they removed them. They didn’t make enough money. Anyone remember the V.I. Saloon, now an outlet mall. The Continental just gone. The "ghetto" where most of the ski school people lived". Now all the illegal aliens live there that work on the mountain and don’t even want a ski pass.

    Does any of this sound familiar. Well put on your seatbelts. When they are through squeezing every penny out of your town just be prepared to pick up the pieces pretty quickly, don’t wait for the bottom to hit, buy those houses that you could not afford and make Bend back to the Bend that I remember. A kick those contractors to the curb. Are they permanent residents? Or do they just fly where the wind blows. Some change is good, but not this much. Collectively you have to fight for your town.

    Thanks for letting me get this out.

    If you whine and complain after it is given back to you and you are in a recession you will lose again.

  53. life long oregonian Avatar
    life long oregonian

    Tina, you said it well. I am not from Bend, so I guess I am lucky not to have to see this happen to my little town,But I guess what saddens me the most is the rudeness of alot of the new commers here, I do remmember when Bend was a nice little community and everyone was friendly, but thats times gone by, I cannot help but think they must be very unhappy, and you know who you are. I suppose the big investers will not slow down till there is not one more nickle to squezze out of here.I was told again this week that Trump bought property out by sisters, rummers I am sure but sure keeps everyone spending. Bend is a city of strangers. Like I said before nobody really cares anymore, its just more money more money more money. Buy the way did anyone read the paper today. Guess who is going to be working at the ski resort this winter? 10/19 edition. Tina you are so right.

  54. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Sorry for all those errors, I guess I should have read my message back before I sent it. Please forgive them and understand the message.

    Thanks.

  55. local activist Avatar
    local activist

    We’ve all heard the rumors that drive these real estate prices up, but this much is true: There is currently a tremendous drive by developers to create as many new destination resorts as possible. These resorts inflate property values on land otherwise undevelopable by fitting criteria established in 1992 to drive the tourist industry. Huge golf course resorts and man made lakes are proposed to inflate lot prices, and they will squander our prescious water resources. Laws like measure 37 and the water mitigation laws are being batted around the courts, but corporations from outside the area are throwing BIG money at exploiting the appeal of our area.

    All of us need to become involved in local planning and need to step up and be vigilant about the current zoning changes proposed in Deschutes County. Just last Thursday there was a meeting to propose EXPANDING the destination resort zoning. The Destination Resorts will cater to gated communities for part time residents who will expect fully maintained golf courses, using 1 million gallons of water a day and dumping maintenance chemicals into our auquifer.Each golf course will cater to a couple hundred homes that will be owned by part time residents.

    The gist of this is that Bend will be exploited by developers looking to make a quick buck selling lots, and then they’ll move on to the next "Trump Tip of the Week".

    Please, please show up at county meetings and have your head counted as someone who cares. Bend is fantastic and deserves to grow responsibly.

  56. life long oregonian Avatar
    life long oregonian

    When, and where are these meetings? Can a difference be made buy a single group apposed to this land rapeing ect? There is big money involved here. A few years ago there was a water shortage here, at least that is what the city claimed to be true, watering was restricted, now they seem to think there is lots of water, what happened that now we have and endless supply for golf courses, lush green yards ect. Water here seems to come and go depending on developement.

  57. local activist Avatar
    local activist

    The meetings are frequently posted as articles in the Bulletin, but are sometimes disguised, as the Bulletin is quite pro development. However, the County and other government agencies are required by law to solicit public input for land use changes. I stay as informed as I can, and we send out notices to interested people via email. Send me your email to mfellner@mindspring.com and I would be happy to include everyone who has concerns to our list.

    We have been activly challenging the Thornburgh Resorts proposed for the Cline Buttes/Tumalo area. The reason that they think that they have all of the water that they need is because of the current water mitigation laws, which take current ground water irrigation rights, spin them around, exchange them for mitigation credits, crunch some numbers that claim to put a percentage of the water back into the aquifer and thereby "puts it back into the Deschutes". There is great controversy about whether this theory holds up scientifically and environmentally, but the developers and politicians love it, as it enables resorts to drill huge wells and pump multimillions of gallons per day. These laws will bite us in the long run and are being challenged by Waterwatch and those that aspire to protect the Deschutes and fish habitat.

  58. Dank Spoonfed Avatar
    Dank Spoonfed

    Check out the Bulletin story linked below from the 10/27 paper – "Northwest Crossing Construction Plans Accelerated." Translation: "if we don’t finish these houses and unload them in the next few months, we know we’ll never sell them in 2006 at 2005 prices." This kind of frenzied get-out-while-you-can mentality is only going to make it worse when the housing bubble in Bend, Oregon bursts, folks…

    http://www.bendbulletin.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20051027/BIZ0102/510270317/1011&nav_category=&template=print

  59. Dank Spoonfed Avatar
    Dank Spoonfed

    Also, I quote this from that 10/27 Bulletin story:

    "The least-expensive home currently available in NorthWest Crossing is a three-bedroom, 3 1/2-bath house for $488,000, according to the project Web site."

    With a 10% down payment of $48,800, the monthly payment on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 6% on the remaining $439,200 would be $2,633.23.

    This is for a 3-bedroom house – the least-expensive in the development! Are people in Bend really making that kind of money? Does that reflect the market value of housing in Bend? The answer to both of these is no.

    Federal guidelines recommend spending no more than 30% of gross income on housing. Following this, and disregarding heat, electricity, maintenance and other costs that are also part of "housing," a household would need to be pulling in $78,996.90 to be STRETCHING to buy that home. According to the US Census Bureau, the median gross household income in Deschutes County was $41,847 in 1999. Granted, Bend is the richest part of Deschutes County and the Westside is the richest part of Bend. But still, the fact that the cheapest house in the development is $488,800 is a big hint that the use of exotic mortgage products is rampant in Bend.

    However, given that the mortgage payment of about $2600 on the cheapest house in NorthWest Crossing is nearly double the rent on a house of the same size in the same neighborhood, it seems that this pricing doesn’t reflect what the actual market value of a roof over your head in Bend is worth. This classified ad is from the same day’s Bulletin:

    "3 bdrm., 2.5 bath, w/dbl. garage in NW Crossing. Office, laundry room, corner lot, fenced backyard. $1400/mo. W/G paid. 541-330-xxxx."

    Naturally, probably Joe & Jane Bendite looking to buy that house are not planning on paying $2600 per month because they are going to get an interest-only or negative-amortization loan, and that is really sad because Joe and Jane are going to end up with ruined credit and no house in a couple years.

    But let’s assume again that the buyers secure a reasonable 30-year fixed mortgage. Why should the "privilege of ownership" cost twice as much per month? It’s because some people in Bend, for some reason, think that $488,800 house is going to be worth $1,000,000 in 10 years. Sorry, but unless everyone on the Westside wins the lottery, that is just not going to happen. Bend’s real estate market is reaching the limits of its affordability, if it hasn’t gone beyond those limits already.

    Newcomers to Bend, do yourselves a favor: rent for a year or so and let this all shake out.

  60. Bud Bundy Avatar

    Going back to the original theme of the thread, the Donald Trump hoax, it turns out it’s not just being used to prop up the housing market! OSU is using it to justify the OSU-Cascades campus:

    "The growth of the OSU-Cascades Campus mirrors that of the central Oregon region, according to Casbon [Jay Casbon, campus executive officer for Oregon State University’s Bend branch]. On a recent episode of CNN’s Larry King Live, Bend was touted as a great place in which to invest by business titan Donald Trump. The city is on pace to double in population in just 15 years. And it ranks eighth in the nation in entrepreneurs per capita."

    Click Here.

  61. Dank Spoonfed Avatar

    Is The Bulletin an investor in NorthWest Crossing?

    The November 5 issue had a story ("What’s Going Up? Solaire Homes") that was basically an advertisement for a new development in NorthWest Crossing.

    And they charge for subscriptions?

    http://www.bendbulletin.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20051105/BIZ0102/511050326/1011&nav_category=&template=print

  62. Bud Bundy Avatar
    Bud Bundy

    The Donald Trump hoax won’t die! Now old Don has come to Bend, and Bend.com has opened up a forum…

    http://bend.com/forums/lofiversion/index.php/t43535.html